Two different conferences, two very different storylines. While the East has shaped up almost exactly as expected with the top two seeds to face each other in the Conference Finals, the West has done anything but go as expected. The top two seeds in the West went out in dramatic fashion - the top-seeded Spurs were bounced out in first round by the Rudy Gay-less Grizzlies, while Phil Jackson was swept for the first time in his career as the two-time Champion Lakers were pounded by the Mavs. Further to there being two very different build-ups and storylines in the respective Conferences, you can expect two very different styles of play from both matchups. In the East it will be a defensive juggernaut, as teams will struggle to score over 90 points a game, meanwhile in the West, expect a shootout. This is your Conference Finals breakdown.
Western Conference: (3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder
Season Series: Dallas 2-1
What To Watch For:
The story of the Playoffs for the Thunder is the poor decision making of Russell Westbrook; he has ignored Kevin Durant in late game situations to the point where KD is visibly angry. For what its worth, Durant was caught complaining to assistant coach Mo Cheeks that “he (Westbrook) won’t give me the f***in ball” during Game 4 against Memphis. Westbrook has averaged 21 field goal attempts through 11 Playoff games this season compared to Durants 19. This is despite KD being more efficient shooting the ball; he is averaging over 3 points more with two less shot attempts. Part of that differential can be explained by the fact that Durant has been getting to the line 2 times more per game also.
In Game 7 vs. Memphis, Westbrook was clearly looking to get Durant involved, it was the kind of game they needed from him. He didn’t need to take 30, or even 20 shots for the Thunder to win. Westbrook had the first Game 7 Playoff triple double since Scottie Pippen did it in 1992. If Westbrook can keep his head in the game, make smart decisions and keep Kevin Durant happy as he did in Game 7, they will give themselves a good chance to win this series. With Dallas having been very consistent so far in the postseason, it is more about what the Thunder are able to do to win then it is about Dallas.
Key Matchup: James Harden vs. Jason Terry
It might not be the obvious choice, but I take it that we know what we will get from the stars in this series. Dirk, Westbrook and Durant will all be monsters. The 6th man is what will give their teams a distinct advantage. Jason Terry has been firing of late and it is not hard to correlate that with how well Dallas has been playing, his scintillating 9/10 from 3 in game 4 (although all wide open, what was with that?) against the Lakers put the game to rest early. Harden has been flying under the radar in these Playoffs; he is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, he is also getting a block and a steal. In game 7 vs. Memphis, he put up a stellar performance, scoring 17 points off the bench and as a result the Thunder won it comfortably despite only 14 points from Westbrook.
When looking at how the two players faired against one another, it is fair to point out that the Thunder did not play the Mavs after trading away Jeff Green, a move that saw an increase in minutes and shots for Harden. James had a poor season series against the Mavs, scoring 9 points per game on only 37% shooting. Jason Terry also had an average showing against OKC, averaging 14 points on 41% shooting. Although they are ok numbers, it was a fair bit down from the 16 points and 45% shooting he averaged on the season. I don’t think anybody expects James Harden to quite outplay Jason Terry, but if Harden can play to a level similar to that of Terrys, it will go a long way in improving the Thunders chances. Conversely, if Jason Terry dominates this matchup and has a series that at all resembles what he did against the Lakers, they may well on their way back to the NBA Finals.
Prediction: Dallas in 7.
With home court advantage and the experience having been to the Finals before, I give the edge to Dallas. They had a large break between last series and now, which should really help guys like Peja, Marion, and especially Jason Kidd.
Eastern Conference: (1) Chicago Bulls vs. (2) Miami Heat
Season Series: Chicago 3-0
What To Watch For:
Defence. Defence. Defence. There will be a lot of it in this series. Chicago led the NBA this season in defensive efficiency, only allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami weren’t too bad themselves, fifth in the league allowing only 100.7 points per 100 possessions. (2, 3 and 4 were Boston, Orlando and Milwaukee respectively)… (Wait wait wait, not ready to close this sidenote yet, the Bucks?! Yep, the goddamn Bucks. They couldn’t hit any shots, but played great D). In the three meetings this season, the final scores were: 87-86, 93-89 and 99-96. Nobody ever reached the century mark; expect this trend to continue this series. The shooters hitting shots will be big in this series, as scoring will not comes easy. If guys like Kyle Korver, Keith Bogans, James Jones and Mario Chalmers can find their touch; they will be worth their weight in gold.
Key Matchup: Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh.
The other four starting five matchups in this series are predictable; the Power Forward matchup is one that could change the course of the series. Boozers’ struggles against length has been well documented for much of his career, he has a hard time getting off shots, finishing around the rim and defending players with great length. But, in the Eastern Conference Finals he will be required to win this matchup if the Bulls are to have any chance of moving on to the NBA Finals. He will need to bully Bosh with his size and strength much like what we have seen from Zach Randolph in these Playoffs, his strength and toughness is what separates him from the wiry Bosh.
While I never like to look at the season series because it isn’t too much of an indicator, it may provide some insight into how these two players faired against one another. During the three regular season meetings, Boozer averaged 13 points and 10 rebounds, shooting only 46% from the floor. Down from season averages of 17.5 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 51%. Bosh also experienced a dip in his averages against the Bulls this season; he averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds, shooting a dismal 34%. Which was a major decline from his season averages of 19 points, 8 rebounds, shooting 50%. This doesn’t provide too much insight other then both players struggled as expected with all the defence both teams play. However, if either Boozer or Bosh is able to dominate this matchup, it will be a pretty big indicator as to who has the better shot in this series.
Prediction: Miami in 6.
The Bulls defence will be good enough to win them one or two games on its own, the key is if there offence will be good enough to win one or two more? All things considered, I believe Miami looks too focused and locked in, they will most likely have the easier time scoring and that could be the difference in this series.
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