The NBA Finals

It’s that time of year again, the bittersweet NBA Finals. Why bittersweet? Because we are about experience a series of basketball that will be played at an extremely high standard. But once it’s over, there will be no NBA for months. With the lockout looming, this could be the last time we see the NBA in 2011. In the Conference Finals Breakdown we discussed the two very different series build-ups and styles the series would be played. Despite there being two very different conference finals matchups, the results were very similar in that experience trumps all. Don’t get caught up in the Finals being a rematch of 2006, only four players from that series is still on their respective teams. Your NBA Finals breakdown starts now.

Season Series: Dallas 2-0 

What To Watch For:

The question on most people’s minds is who is going to get the job guarding Dirk. The Heat will most definitely try a variety of defenders on Dirk, but this is not the same player that the Heat held to 39% shooting in the 2006 NBA Finals. Back then, there were two distinct strategies in guarding Dirk that could provide some sort of resistance. The first was to put a smaller defender on him and get in and underneath him to bother him while shooting, the Spurs used to do this with Bruce Bowen. The second strategy was to put a stronger defender on Dirk who could bully him and push him further away from the rim. This was so that he would catch the ball in any position other than his ‘spot’. Dirk is very comfortable catching the ball on the team logo inside the 3-point line from either side of the paint, Udonis Haslem used this bullying tactic to great success in the 2006 Finals as he pounded Dirk away from spots he liked to catch the ball. Even though there is no proof or way to measure Dirks increase in strength over the past few years, it has definitely been a couple of seasons since either of these tactics have worked with any degree of consistent effectiveness.

It is expected that the primary defenders given the responsibility to contain Dirk will be Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony. Haslem will no doubt try to apply the same techniques that he did in 2006, but this time the results may vary. Joel Anthony will also try a very similar approach but with a more length and the extra dimension of being a shot blocker. There will definitely come a time in this series when LeBron James will be asked to guard Dirk; this is something that I can’t wait to see. When considering the job that LBJ did on Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals and now that he will see time on Dirk is really a testament to the type of physical marvel that LeBron is. He will no doubt use his strength, quickness and energy to bother Dirk as much as possible; this will be one of the more intriguing things to watch for in the Finals.

The X-Factors:

We have come to expect greatness from Dirk, LeBron and Wade. Apart from these stars of the game, each team posses players that can help to turn games. For the Mavs, this is Jason Terry. Terry has had a near flawless Playoffs thus far, the Jet (worst nickname ever? Or maybe Roddy Buckets is? Hmm, where’s Shaq when you need him) is averaging 17 points per game shooting 47% from the field and over 46% from beyond the arc. He is also making over 89% of his free throws. In games where Terry scores 20 or more points during the Playoffs, the Mavs are 5-1. He is critical if the Mavs are going to have a chance at capturing their first NBA Championship.

Chris Bosh continues to be the ex-factor for the Heat, when scoring 20 or more points the Heat are 7-1 in games so far during these Playoffs. When he plays well it can be a near impossible task to beat Miami, let alone in four out of seven games. When looking at the Chicago series, during the regular season the Heat were winless in three games against the Bulls as Bosh averaged 15.7 points on 34% shooting. During the Eastern Conference Finals, he upped that average to 23.2 points per game on 60% shooting and the Heat were able to eliminate the Bulls in only five games. If Jason Terry or Chris Bosh is able to provide their team with the level of output they have shown in flashes throughout the Playoffs, it will go a long way in helping their team succeed.

Prediction: Miami in 6.

Miami have been my prediction since the beginning of the Playoffs; they are playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. The season series is meaningless as per usual. LeBron has looked devastating at times, Wade hasn’t played at 100% but has come through late in games and Bosh has been looking more and more dangerous each game. Even though Dallas seemed to not have much trouble in passing the Thunder, the athleticism of Oklahoma City did give the Mavs a bit of trouble; OKC were just too young and inexperienced to close out games. The trouble the Mavs had against athleticism will arguably get worse in the Finals as they try to contain two of the greatest athletes in the world. The Heat are playing too well right now, assuming the Mavs don’t experience the same freakish shooting they had against the Lakers, the Heat should clinch their second Championship in franchise history.

NBA Conference Finals Breakdown

Two different conferences, two very different storylines. While the East has shaped up almost exactly as expected with the top two seeds to face each other in the Conference Finals, the West has done anything but go as expected. The top two seeds in the West went out in dramatic fashion - the top-seeded Spurs were bounced out in first round by the Rudy Gay-less Grizzlies, while Phil Jackson was swept for the first time in his career as the two-time Champion Lakers were pounded by the Mavs. Further to there being two very different build-ups and storylines in the respective Conferences, you can expect two very different styles of play from both matchups. In the East it will be a defensive juggernaut, as teams will struggle to score over 90 points a game, meanwhile in the West, expect a shootout. This is your Conference Finals breakdown.  

Western Conference: (3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series: Dallas 2-1

What To Watch For:

The story of the Playoffs for the Thunder is the poor decision making of Russell Westbrook; he has ignored Kevin Durant in late game situations to the point where KD is visibly angry. For what its worth, Durant was caught complaining to assistant coach Mo Cheeks that “he (Westbrook) won’t give me the f***in ball” during Game 4 against Memphis. Westbrook has averaged 21 field goal attempts through 11 Playoff games this season compared to Durants 19. This is despite KD being more efficient shooting the ball; he is averaging over 3 points more with two less shot attempts. Part of that differential can be explained by the fact that Durant has been getting to the line 2 times more per game also.

In Game 7 vs. Memphis, Westbrook was clearly looking to get Durant involved, it was the kind of game they needed from him. He didn’t need to take 30, or even 20 shots for the Thunder to win. Westbrook had the first Game 7 Playoff triple double since Scottie Pippen did it in 1992. If Westbrook can keep his head in the game, make smart decisions and keep Kevin Durant happy as he did in Game 7, they will give themselves a good chance to win this series. With Dallas having been very consistent so far in the postseason, it is more about what the Thunder are able to do to win then it is about Dallas. 

Key Matchup: James Harden vs. Jason Terry

It might not be the obvious choice, but I take it that we know what we will get from the stars in this series. Dirk, Westbrook and Durant will all be monsters. The 6^th man is what will give their teams a distinct advantage. Jason Terry has been firing of late and it is not hard to correlate that with how well Dallas has been playing, his scintillating 9/10 from 3 in game 4 (although all wide open, what was with that?) against the Lakers put the game to rest early. Harden has been flying under the radar in these Playoffs; he is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, he is also getting a block and a steal. In game 7 vs. Memphis, he put up a stellar performance, scoring 17 points off the bench and as a result the Thunder won it comfortably despite only 14 points from Westbrook.

When looking at how the two players faired against one another, it is fair to point out that the Thunder did not play the Mavs after trading away Jeff Green, a move that saw an increase in minutes and shots for Harden. James had a poor season series against the Mavs, scoring 9 points per game on only 37% shooting. Jason Terry also had an average showing against OKC, averaging 14 points on 41% shooting. Although they are ok numbers, it was a fair bit down from the 16 points and 45% shooting he averaged on the season. I don’t think anybody expects James Harden to quite outplay Jason Terry, but if Harden can play to a level similar to that of Terrys, it will go a long way in improving the Thunders chances. Conversely, if Jason Terry dominates this matchup and has a series that at all resembles what he did against the Lakers, they may well on their way back to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: Dallas in 7.

With home court advantage and the experience having been to the Finals before, I give the edge to Dallas. They had a large break between last series and now, which should really help guys like Peja, Marion, and especially Jason Kidd.

Eastern Conference: (1) Chicago Bulls vs. (2) Miami Heat

Season Series: Chicago 3-0

What To Watch For:

Defence. Defence. Defence. There will be a lot of it in this series. Chicago led the NBA this season in defensive efficiency, only allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami weren’t too bad themselves, fifth in the league allowing only 100.7 points per 100 possessions. (2, 3 and 4 were Boston, Orlando and Milwaukee respectively)… (Wait wait wait, not ready to close this sidenote yet, the Bucks?! Yep, the goddamn Bucks. They couldn’t hit any shots, but played great D). In the three meetings this season, the final scores were: 87-86, 93-89 and 99-96. Nobody ever reached the century mark; expect this trend to continue this series. The shooters hitting shots will be big in this series, as scoring will not comes easy. If guys like Kyle Korver, Keith Bogans, James Jones and Mario Chalmers can find their touch; they will be worth their weight in gold.

Key Matchup: Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh.

The other four starting five matchups in this series are predictable; the Power Forward matchup is one that could change the course of the series. Boozers’ struggles against length has been well documented for much of his career, he has a hard time getting off shots, finishing around the rim and defending players with great length. But, in the Eastern Conference Finals he will be required to win this matchup if the Bulls are to have any chance of moving on to the NBA Finals. He will need to bully Bosh with his size and strength much like what we have seen from Zach Randolph in these Playoffs, his strength and toughness is what separates him from the wiry Bosh.

While I never like to look at the season series because it isn’t too much of an indicator, it may provide some insight into how these two players faired against one another. During the three regular season meetings, Boozer averaged 13 points and 10 rebounds, shooting only 46% from the floor. Down from season averages of 17.5 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 51%. Bosh also experienced a dip in his averages against the Bulls this season; he averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds, shooting a dismal 34%. Which was a major decline from his season averages of 19 points, 8 rebounds, shooting 50%. This doesn’t provide too much insight other then both players struggled as expected with all the defence both teams play. However, if either Boozer or Bosh is able to dominate this matchup, it will be a pretty big indicator as to who has the better shot in this series.

Prediction: Miami in 6.

The Bulls defence will be good enough to win them one or two games on its own, the key is if there offence will be good enough to win one or two more? All things considered, I believe Miami looks too focused and locked in, they will most likely have the easier time scoring and that could be the difference in this series.

Five Myths About The Miami Heat

A lot has been said about this Miami Heat team, everybody likes to look for reasons as to why they will not succeed. Most have been rightly turned off by the infamous ‘Decision’ and the joke of an introduction that soon followed (see picture below). A few common misconceptions have consistently reared their heads this season; the following are four of the biggest:

Myth One: Depth is Important.

Team depth is something that can allow you to cruise through the vigour and grind of the regular season. It allowed the Spurs to rise to the top of the Western Conference standings, but come Playoff time – it is a star driven league. A common misconception is that depth wins titles but when the bright Playoff lights come on and the big boys come out to play, the supposed team ‘depth’ is riding the bench. While many believe that depth is a major aspect to a teams title chances, most people would also agree that star players see a major increase in minutes come Playoff time. When you think about it, those are two very different and conflicting ideologies. How can depth be so important to a teams title hopes, but it is conceded that come Playoff time, the stars will see an increase in minutes? An interesting stat to look at is the difference in minutes of the players on the 2010 NBA Championship Lakers when comparing the regular season to the Playoffs.

		Regular Season	Playoff
		Minutes	Minutes	Difference
Starters
Derek Fisher		27.2	32.8	5.6
Kobe Bryant		38.8	40.1	1.3
Ron Artest		33.8	36.5	2.7
Pau Gasol		37.0	39.7	2.7
Andrew Bynum		30.4	24.4	-6.0
STARTERS TOTAL:		167.2	173.5	6.3
Bench
Lamar Odom		31.5	29.0	-2.5
Josh Powell		9.2	3.1	-6.1
Shannon Brown		20.7	14.1	-6.6
Sasha Vujacic		8.6	7.6	-1.0
Jordan Farmar		18.0	13.1	-4.9
Luke Walton		9.4	6.0	-3.4
DJ Mbenga		7.2	4.0	-3.2
BENCH TOTAL:		104.6	76.9	-27.7

A then-injured Andrew Bynum is an exception to the example as he saw a decrease of six minutes during the Playoffs. Lamar Odom also skews the statistics, as he is a starting calibre player and is playing starters minutes. The best six players on the 2010 Championship Lakers team accounted for 203 of the available 240 minutes each game in the Playoffs. When looking at this current Miami Heat team, LeBron saw his minutes increase from 38.8 to 43.4. Wades’ minutes increased from 37.1 to 39.5, while Bosh also saw an increase in minutes from 36.3 to 39 when the Playoffs began. Assuming the best six players on the Heat team are LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers, the best six account for 198 of the available 240 minutes. The lack of depth on this Heat team may explain why they “only” won 58 games, but being extremely top heavy is the reason as to why they are yet to be challenged in the Playoffs.

Of course this formula is not applicable to all good Playoff teams – see Dallas Mavericks. The Heats best six players account for 82.5% of the available minutes in the Playoffs, and when three of those six best players are to the calibre of Wade, James and Bosh – who needs depth?

Myth Two: The Supporting Cast is Terrible!

Sure, a team consisting of Zydrunas Ilagauskas, James Jones, Eddie House, Joel Anthony, Juwon Howard, Mike Miller and a finished Mike Bibby who can’t guard your grandma is underwhelming. There is not too much to get excited over on this Heat team outside of the big three, but at the same time they have some of the most perfect role players for what they need. Joel Anthony is impossible to keep off the boards, he may not get every rebound but he will get his hand to every loose ball. His defensive strengths make him a great frontcourt partner to Chris Bosh. Offensively, he contributes almost nothing, but when you have three players on your team contributing a combined 68.2 points per game, it’s probably not going to hurt you too much.

Shooters are often the x-factor of a Playoff team; a lot comes down to if they hit their shots when it counts. Being a shooter on this Miami Heat team is a dream job for any role player. Not only do shooters get more open looks than on any other team, but Wade and James are able to deliver a pass under pressure or while being double-teamed right to the shooters chest. So far these Playoffs, the shooters have been white hot (excuse the pun). James Jones and Mario Chalmers are shooting a combined 38% from 3 in the Playoffs. Mike Miller is only playing 5mins per game and Mike Bibby has only made 8 of his 34 3pt attempts. Amongst those role players that are playing considerable minutes, most are giving the Heat exactly what they are asked to, with the exception being Mike Bibby.

Myth Three: Miami Can’t Win This Season.

The Heat are ready. They proved during the regular season that they are already a force to be reckoned with. Although they suffered a few embarrassing losses, they also had some very imposing wins. Amongst the worst of the losses are those to the Bucks, Cavs and Knicks (twice). On the contrast, they had some very memorable wins including a 30point demolition of the then-top-seeded Spurs and a thumping of the Lakers in LA on Christmas Day. There are always odd examples of really good teams losing to terrible competition during the regular season; this can be because of a variety of reasons. With a long Playoff push in the forefront of the organisations mind, lapses are inevitable against very underwhelming competition. Reducing the minutes of star players and saving them for the Playoffs is often more of a focus and priority then winning 65 games.

Further to this, Dwyane Wade knows what it takes to win an NBA Championship and LeBron has just addressed the demons of his past as the Heat coasted past the Celtics in 5 games. Regardless of if you think Chris Bosh is good enough to be the third best player on a Championship team, Wade and LeBron are almost good enough by themselves to beat the remaining teams in the Playoffs. Anybody that watches this team play can’t deny that Wade and LeBron look ready.

Myth Four: They Have No Closer. 

Earlier this season this had some legitimacy and there was the stat thrown around where the Heat had shot 1/10 in late game situations when the result was still in the balance. We often grant teams the ‘adjustment period’ when they are learning to play with each other, but amidst the overwhelming hope that this team would fail, we did not grant the Heat that luxury. It has been some time since that argument has been given. The Heat are extremely vulnerable to criticism no matter what happens in late game situations. LeBron was canned earlier this season for passing up on a potential game winning shot, against the Thunder, to Eddie House – which he hit. Fans still want to see LeBron or Wade go one on five even though there is evidence to show that Chris Paul is much more efficient in late game situations as it is better to have an amazing playmaking point guard rather than a Kobe-like superstar shooting a contested fade-away jumpshot over a double team.

Theoretically, closing games with two players such as LeBron and Wade should be quite easy, they are two players that can get to the rim or free throw line whenever they want. The Heat are also equipped with a great pick-and-pop player in Chris Bosh. When you factor in the dead-eye shooters on the perimeter, they sound almost impossible to guard. While this has not been much of an issue in the past couple of months, it is definitely something Miami were attacked over earlier this season. It is yet to cost them a Playoff game, and until it does, I won’t consider it a problem big enough to stop them winning it all.

Myth Five: The Money Spent On Bosh Could Have Been Better Spent.

This is one of the more ludicrous claims that have been said about this team. It is often argued that Bosh should not have been signed, and the heat should have instead used that money to sign 2-3 very good role players to surround Wade and LeBron. Outside of all the star players that were free agents last summer, the 2010 free agent class was terrible – and that’s a compliment. Chris Bosh earned $14.5m in his first year with the Heat, is there another way that money could have been distributed to other Free Agents? If Miami had not signed Bosh, their needs would have obviously been to shore up their frontcourt, and perhaps add more shooting or another wing player to play backup minutes behind Wade and LeBron and maybe even carry the offense for a couple of minutes.

What was the Heat supposed to do? Sign Marcus Camby ($4m), Wesley Matthews ($8m) and Fracisco Elson ($2m)? Or maybe Raymond Felton ($7m), Kyle Korver ($5m) and Nazr Mohammed ($2m)? None of those 3 player combinations are even close to the calibre of Bosh. Even if the Heat decided to go in a different direction in the future, Chris Bosh is a much bigger trade asset then any of the previously mentioned players. Although Bosh is not up to the standard of LeBron or Wade, he is definitely a better addition to the team then any other available free agent outside of the marquee players that were unachievable. The only improvement that could have been made would be to have offered that same money to someone like Amare Stoudemire, but it was definitely far from a certainty that he would have agreed to it. Another reason as to why Bosh was signed is that this Miami agreement was clearly in place between the three players and had been for a long time. Assuming it all came together that quickly in the free agency period would be naive, Miami bought a three pack – they could not be purchased separately.

Miami are still my pick to win the NBA Championship, in a star driven league they are the team of all teams. Their defence has been proven over the regular season and so far in the Playoffs. Wade and LeBron in their prime somehow have enough energy to play as hard as they do on both ends of the floor. Their role players are providing exactly what they need to, they have a nice mix of veteran leadership and proven winners. And, with the remaining teams being the Thunder, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hawks – is anyone actually good enough to stop them?

Understanding the Spurs - What Went Wrong?

The San Antonio Spurs rolled through the regular season, won more games than any other Western Conference team. The continued success of the Spurs has meant counting them out is something that sportswriters and experts alike often condemn. This however, is not a regular San Antonio team. Gone are the days where you throw the ball to Tim Duncan and watch him dominate on the block. Gone are the days Tim has a frontcourt mate (whether it be Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, David Robinson, or Robert Horry) to help him lockup the paint defensively. Gone are the days where the 3point shot was a compliment to a dominant inside game for the Spurs. And, gone are the days where lockdown defence was the staple of the organisation. While regular season success has not translated to the post season and many people have been left stunned, it is easy to understand why this team was never geared for a deep playoff run. Anybody that watched the Spurs play this season saw a distinct change in playing style from what we have become accustomed to. Change that may have helped them coast through the regular season but would inevitably harm them in the postseason. After much analysis and time spent thinking about what changed for the Spurs that has seen them recently fade in the postseason, three distinct points of difference emerged.

Heavy Reliance on the 3point Shot.

Regular season success for the Spurs strongly hindered on if the 3point shot was falling for them. While being a decent 3point shooting team is an important aspect for any Playoff team, there is a difference between relying on it and using it to compliment the offense. During the regular season the Spurs shot 42.2% from 3 in wins and only 32.9% in losses, this may be an obvious statistic to some as you assume if you shoot well you will win. But, when you crunch the numbers further, the Spurs heavy reliance on the 3 is revealed. That differential of 9.3% between wins and losses is the second highest amongst Playoff teams, trailing only the Knicks (9.8% differential). To provide a benchmark, the average differential between 3point percentages in wins when compared to losses amongst Playoff teams is 6.5%. Making 3s is a great compliment to any good offensive team but should not be something that is relied upon night and night out to give your team a chance to win against good teams as it is with this Spurs team. All too often we have seen jump-shooting teams experience regular season success only to falter in the Playoffs, this list includes teams such as Phoenix, Orlando and Dallas.

Lack of Size and Interior Presence.

Being able to lockdown the paint in the Playoffs and challenge shots at the rim is something very important to Playoff teams. Tim is no longer someone that can be paired with any PF or C and can be expected to carry them. Players such as Rasho, Nazr and Fab no longer suffice next to a 35-year old Tim Duncan. Tim needs a backcourt partner that can assist in shouldering the defensive load and provide some form of interior scoring on the offensive end. The Spurs have been exposed in the first round going up against the duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Despite all the media attention and hype given to Zach Randolph, often ZBo hasn’t been the problem - Marc has simply outplayed Tim. We have seen too many instances where Tim looks to secure a defensive rebound, only to have it ripped away by a bigger, stronger and younger, Marc. Tiago Splitter may become the frontcourt mate so desperately needed, but it is help that has come too late. Tim is currently the Spurs only form of rim defence; no other player will make you think twice about challenging them. Matt Bonner (too slow) and DeJuan Blair (too small) can be extreme defensive liabilities at times depending on the matchup, while Antonio McDyess should be getting spot minutes and not depended upon to guard star players such as Dirk, ZBo and Pau Gasol for 30 minutes.

Absence of Length and Size on the Perimeter.

Granted depth is less of a factor in the Playoffs when the best five to six players on the team will combine for over 80% of the available minutes, the players that surround your core guys should at least be capable defensively. A good example of this is the Chicago Bulls, while their roster on paper is not all too impressive, they surrounded their core players with length, defence and toughness with players such as Ronnie Brewer, CJ Watson, Keith Bogans and Luol Deng. While I am not suggesting that another Keith Bogans appearance is the solution, the Bulls were able to incorporate the players listed above along with their core players to achieve the best defence and overall record in the NBA. Before you shout at your screens that Playoff success is the topic of conversation and the Bulls are yet to prove anything in the postseason. The Spurs relying on 3point shooting is a trait by which success in the Playoffs cannot be relied upon, while lockdown defence is usually a key focus of any successful Playoff team. Manu Ginobili is currently the Spurs best answer defensively for players such as Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant, and while he generally does a great job, it would be nice for the Spurs to not completely rely on Manu offensively, as well as defensively to guard elite perimeter players.

An interesting side note to this is that the Spurs ranked 11^th in Defensive Efficiency this season while Chicago ranked 1^st. For those that don’t know, Defensive Efficiency is the amount of points a team allowed per 100 possessions, it is better to look at this then points allowed as it factors in pace. (I recently commented on an article on the Bleacher Report and cited Defensive Efficiency, when the author replied it was obvious he had no idea what it actually was and thus I felt the need to explain… okay now I’m rambling.)

There are many obvious problems with the Spurs that prevent them from going far in the Playoffs. The Spurs have run into a team that not only exploit all of their weaknesses, but punish them for it. Even if changes are made to rectify the problems mentioned, it might be too late for the Spurs. Tim Duncan turned 35 a couple of days ago, while Manu and Tony will turn 34 and 29 respectively before next season. Sure, the Spurs will bounce back and win another 50 games next season. But, being a small market team with no room to move financially, very little trade assets and an aging core does not bode well for the four time champs. It may finally be time to count them out. 

Orlando - Where Lightning Struck Twice, Then Walked Out The Door.

Rewind back to 1992, the Magic strikes it lucky in a lottery where the most dominant player of the following 10-15 years enters the draft. Shaquille O’Neal enters the NBA after averaging 24.1 points, 14 rebounds and 5.2 blocks per game in his junior season at LSU. Shaq was the unanimous numbers 1 pick and instantly turned around a struggling Orlando franchise. Orlando nearly doubled their wins (from 21-61 to 41-41) in Shaqs rookie season, in his sophomore season they made it to the NBA Finals where they were swept by a Hakeem-led Houston Rockets. With growing pressure on then-coach Brian Hill and hesitance to give Shaq $100m (both from the public and internally), Shaq signed a 7-year, $121m deal with the Lakers, teamed with Kobe, went on the be the most dominant player in the league in the next 10 years and won three championships with the Lakers. The Magic landed a once in every 50 years player and lost him after only three seasons, for nothing. Could the Magic ever forgive themselves for this? Would they ever strike it that lucky again?

Enter Dwight Howard.

Eight years later and the Magic hadn’t made it out of the first round since losing Shaq. Ironically, after another 21-61 season which saw them land Shaq 12 years earlier, the Magic once again were blessed with the top pick of the 2004 NBA draft. The choice was either an established college basketball star from UCONN in Emeka Okafor, or a riskier Dwight Howard who was entering the draft straight out of high school. The Magic decided to go with the high risk – potentially very high reward product in Dwight. The Magic had done it again, scoring a player who would become the most dominant Centre in the NBA. Not many franchises have the luxury of drafting a player the calibre of Shaq or Dwight, let alone both of them in just more then a ten-year span. Lightening had struck twice in Orlando, but after a failed trip to the NBA Finals and multiple questionable trades and free agent signings, it appears the Magic may suffer a similar fate once again.

While Orlando have shown no hesitance to spend in an effort to surround Dwight with a championship calibre team (in what I like to call the 'Cav-theory' of spending), they have made very little moves that made sense. At the time each move was made, we thought they were nonsensical and a bit extreme. Looking back now, it is amazing how many disastrously expensive moves the Magic organisation have made since signing Dwight. The only way to truly get an overview of the situation is to provide a timeline of the all the terrible moves the Magic have made since drafting Dwight:

11^th July 2007: Orlando Sign Rashard Lewis to a 6-year, $118m deal.

As much of a great fit Rashard was next to Dwight, which I admit he was, signing a then-28 year old Lewis to a max contract was ludicrous. This deal would limit what Orlando were able to do financially throughout the entire length of that contract. Nobody would trade for this contract, they were stuck with a decent stretch 4 on $20m annually. 

25^th June 2009: Orlando Acquire Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson.

While Orlando only gave up one true asset in this trade, Courtney Lee, they acquired a player who was not built for the playoffs. Vinsanity is extremely talented and great to watch, but lacked the killer instinct, self-drive and determination which would have made him into an asset for a championship team. Vince is built for the highlight reel, not the NBA Playoffs. 

Interesting side note: Ryan Anderson may have been a throw-in in this deal, but ended up almost providing the same output, shooting and matchup problems as Rashard did at PF. Only, at a cost of $17m less per season.

9^th July 2010: Orlando trade Hedo Turkoglu to the Raptors.

While this deal wasn’t all too bad because keeping Hedo would have meant overpaying for him, Hedo was the MVP of the team in their 2009 NBA Finals run. His height, ball handling and shooting put in a pick and roll with Dwight, having shooters on the perimeter was a matchup nightmare. Why letting Turk walk was not a great decision is further explained in a future terrible move.

10^th July 2010: Brandon Bass signs $18m deal with the Magic.

While this deal, 4 years $18m, was a decent deal for Bass, it is money they could have given to Hedo Turkoglu. They were unwilling to overpay their MVP from last season, but were happy to give that money to Bass. Their big man rotation at the time of Howard, Anderson, Gortat, Shard and Foyle was not in need of bolstering with Bass. Instead they could have signed a veteran (such a Kurt Thomas or Juwon Howard) that could have been paid the minimum and given Dwight some valuable leadership along the way. Bass played in only 50 games his first season with Orlando, averaging 13mins. He is only now starting to 'blossom' because of more bad trades made by the Magic.

8^th July 2010: Magic sign Chris Duhon to 4year $15m deal.

Not going to break this one down too much. It’s not a great deal, but not too much for Duhon. It’s just more money they could have given to Hedo. Duhon sat on the end of the bench behind Nelson, Redick, Vince, Pietrus and Jason Williams. Unnecessary.


20^th December 2010: Orlando trade Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas and Earl Clark.

In two separate deals late last year, the Magic put the final nail in their own coffin. Trading Vince Carter, Pietrus and Gortat to Phoenix for JRich, Turkoglu back and Earl Clark was the less insane of the two moves. After deciding not to overpay Turkoglu two years previously and spend the money on Duhon and Bass to sit on the end of their bench, the Magic decide to trade a failed Vince Carter, along with two great Playoff assets in Pietrus and Gortat. Pietrus is a very good perimeter defender and 3point shooter, while Gortat is one of the best backup centers in the NBA. Defending the paint and guarding great wing players such as LeBron, Wade, Pierce and Ray Allen in the East are two very important aspects in the Playoffs. If they lost all of those assets, they must have acquired something pretty good, right? Nope, they got back Hedo Turkoglu on the amount of money they were unwilling to pay him two years previously and Jason Richardson who is a solid player, but not worth all of the assets Orlando gave up. Well done.

Further to this, they found a team willing to take on the second worst contract in the NBA, the catch was the deal was to trade for the worst contract in the NBA. Rashard Lewis was traded one-for-one to the Wizards for Rashard Lewis. Arenas at the time was averaging 17 points and 5 assists after missing 199 of his last 246 games due to a recurring knee injury and for bringing a gun into the locker room. While this deal was obviously a risk by the Magic that didn’t pay off, and nobody could have predicted how bad Arenas has been since the trade (8 points per game on 34% shooting in 22 minutes per game). The problem I have with this trade is that it would have available right up until the trade deadline, the Wizards were never saying no to this deal. Why not make the Phoenix trade, which was less risky, and see how the team and Rashard reacted. If the team needed another shakeup, revisit the Arenas possibility in February just before the deadline.  

In the meantime, a lot of their players are now considered untradeable due to the size and length of their contracts, they have very few assets of value and are locked in financially for the next two seasons. Dwight Howard can become a free agent after next season if he declines the final year ($19.3m) of his contract, which is very likely. The warning signs are sounding loudly, the days of Dwight in Orlando are truly numbered, and they are unable to make any last saving changes in an attempt to change his mind. As an NBA fan, it is frustrating to see Dwight waste his career in Orlando as he caries his team through the playoffs each season with Jameer Nelson making cameo appearances along the way. The prospect of him teaming with another star and competing in the Conference Finals vs. the Heat, Celtics or Bulls is mouth-watering.

In order to make a trade for Dwight, it is assumed you would need a trade asset large enough to entice the Magic, another star or two to team with Dwight, perhaps a decent first-round draft pick, and to be located in a city Dwight would be willing to play. Lucky for Dwight, there are a couple of potential suitors that meet this stringent criteria. The two obvious destinations frequently mentioned are the LA Lakers and New Jersey Nets (soon to be relocated to Brooklyn).

The Lakers would trade Andrew Bynum and probably a first round pick or two, the draft picks would be useless as the Lakers most likely won’t have a first round pick outside of the 23-30 range in the next 3-4 years. The Lakers are a destination in which Dwight would be willing to move to, whilst the Lakers get a dominant young big man. A team of Kobe, Pau, Dwight and Odom is a great prospect for any NBA fan. The New Jersey Nets present another interesting trade scenario, they have a solid young trade asset in Brook Lopez, would be able to provide a lottery pick, and is another destination in which Dwight would be open to playing in. He would be teamed with Deron Williams in an exciting time for the franchise as they move to a much larger market in Brooklyn. While these are the two obvious scenarios that have been thrown around repeatedly, there is another team waiting in the shadows that could emerge as a potential suitor for Dwight.

Another team not mentioned in the Dwight-sweapstakes is the Chicago Bulls, the Bulls are a young team on the rise, they finished with the best record in the NBA this season and most likely own the league MVP in Derrick Rose. Coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive mastermind who with Dwight Howard could take his already league-leading defence to scary new heights. Dwight would also be able to provide a boost offensively. There is no question Dwight is a great fit in Chicago, the system suits him and he gets to play with arguably the leagues best point guard and soon to be MVP in Rose. Fortunately, they also have a great asset that could be used in acquiring Dwight – Joakim Noah. Noah is a terrific young centre who can guard both the pick and roll and one-on-one in the post very effectively. While limited offensively, Noah could be a good enough piece for the Magic to consider trading Dwight if he demands out. The only setback in this trade is Dwight and his apparent need to be the ‘alpha dog’ on the team, which could be a question in Chicago. But, if you want to win, you will need to coexist with another star or two.

Unfortunately for Orlando fans, yet fortunately for NBA fans, I don’t think there is any way Orlando can find a way to keep Dwight, his supporting cast is terrible and he is wasting his career on that team. Whilst the Lakers and Nets are the most popular picks for where Dwight will land, I’m hoping the Chicago scenario manages to play out. Don’t lie, Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard taking on Miami, Boston, or an up and coming New York team is something you would LOVE to see!