The NBA Finals

It’s that time of year again, the bittersweet NBA Finals. Why bittersweet? Because we are about experience a series of basketball that will be played at an extremely high standard. But once it’s over, there will be no NBA for months. With the lockout looming, this could be the last time we see the NBA in 2011. In the Conference Finals Breakdown we discussed the two very different series build-ups and styles the series would be played. Despite there being two very different conference finals matchups, the results were very similar in that experience trumps all. Don’t get caught up in the Finals being a rematch of 2006, only four players from that series is still on their respective teams. Your NBA Finals breakdown starts now.

Season Series: Dallas 2-0 

What To Watch For:

The question on most people’s minds is who is going to get the job guarding Dirk. The Heat will most definitely try a variety of defenders on Dirk, but this is not the same player that the Heat held to 39% shooting in the 2006 NBA Finals. Back then, there were two distinct strategies in guarding Dirk that could provide some sort of resistance. The first was to put a smaller defender on him and get in and underneath him to bother him while shooting, the Spurs used to do this with Bruce Bowen. The second strategy was to put a stronger defender on Dirk who could bully him and push him further away from the rim. This was so that he would catch the ball in any position other than his ‘spot’. Dirk is very comfortable catching the ball on the team logo inside the 3-point line from either side of the paint, Udonis Haslem used this bullying tactic to great success in the 2006 Finals as he pounded Dirk away from spots he liked to catch the ball. Even though there is no proof or way to measure Dirks increase in strength over the past few years, it has definitely been a couple of seasons since either of these tactics have worked with any degree of consistent effectiveness.

It is expected that the primary defenders given the responsibility to contain Dirk will be Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony. Haslem will no doubt try to apply the same techniques that he did in 2006, but this time the results may vary. Joel Anthony will also try a very similar approach but with a more length and the extra dimension of being a shot blocker. There will definitely come a time in this series when LeBron James will be asked to guard Dirk; this is something that I can’t wait to see. When considering the job that LBJ did on Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals and now that he will see time on Dirk is really a testament to the type of physical marvel that LeBron is. He will no doubt use his strength, quickness and energy to bother Dirk as much as possible; this will be one of the more intriguing things to watch for in the Finals.

The X-Factors:

We have come to expect greatness from Dirk, LeBron and Wade. Apart from these stars of the game, each team posses players that can help to turn games. For the Mavs, this is Jason Terry. Terry has had a near flawless Playoffs thus far, the Jet (worst nickname ever? Or maybe Roddy Buckets is? Hmm, where’s Shaq when you need him) is averaging 17 points per game shooting 47% from the field and over 46% from beyond the arc. He is also making over 89% of his free throws. In games where Terry scores 20 or more points during the Playoffs, the Mavs are 5-1. He is critical if the Mavs are going to have a chance at capturing their first NBA Championship.

Chris Bosh continues to be the ex-factor for the Heat, when scoring 20 or more points the Heat are 7-1 in games so far during these Playoffs. When he plays well it can be a near impossible task to beat Miami, let alone in four out of seven games. When looking at the Chicago series, during the regular season the Heat were winless in three games against the Bulls as Bosh averaged 15.7 points on 34% shooting. During the Eastern Conference Finals, he upped that average to 23.2 points per game on 60% shooting and the Heat were able to eliminate the Bulls in only five games. If Jason Terry or Chris Bosh is able to provide their team with the level of output they have shown in flashes throughout the Playoffs, it will go a long way in helping their team succeed.

Prediction: Miami in 6.

Miami have been my prediction since the beginning of the Playoffs; they are playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. The season series is meaningless as per usual. LeBron has looked devastating at times, Wade hasn’t played at 100% but has come through late in games and Bosh has been looking more and more dangerous each game. Even though Dallas seemed to not have much trouble in passing the Thunder, the athleticism of Oklahoma City did give the Mavs a bit of trouble; OKC were just too young and inexperienced to close out games. The trouble the Mavs had against athleticism will arguably get worse in the Finals as they try to contain two of the greatest athletes in the world. The Heat are playing too well right now, assuming the Mavs don’t experience the same freakish shooting they had against the Lakers, the Heat should clinch their second Championship in franchise history.

NBA Conference Finals Breakdown

Two different conferences, two very different storylines. While the East has shaped up almost exactly as expected with the top two seeds to face each other in the Conference Finals, the West has done anything but go as expected. The top two seeds in the West went out in dramatic fashion - the top-seeded Spurs were bounced out in first round by the Rudy Gay-less Grizzlies, while Phil Jackson was swept for the first time in his career as the two-time Champion Lakers were pounded by the Mavs. Further to there being two very different build-ups and storylines in the respective Conferences, you can expect two very different styles of play from both matchups. In the East it will be a defensive juggernaut, as teams will struggle to score over 90 points a game, meanwhile in the West, expect a shootout. This is your Conference Finals breakdown.  

Western Conference: (3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series: Dallas 2-1

What To Watch For:

The story of the Playoffs for the Thunder is the poor decision making of Russell Westbrook; he has ignored Kevin Durant in late game situations to the point where KD is visibly angry. For what its worth, Durant was caught complaining to assistant coach Mo Cheeks that “he (Westbrook) won’t give me the f***in ball” during Game 4 against Memphis. Westbrook has averaged 21 field goal attempts through 11 Playoff games this season compared to Durants 19. This is despite KD being more efficient shooting the ball; he is averaging over 3 points more with two less shot attempts. Part of that differential can be explained by the fact that Durant has been getting to the line 2 times more per game also.

In Game 7 vs. Memphis, Westbrook was clearly looking to get Durant involved, it was the kind of game they needed from him. He didn’t need to take 30, or even 20 shots for the Thunder to win. Westbrook had the first Game 7 Playoff triple double since Scottie Pippen did it in 1992. If Westbrook can keep his head in the game, make smart decisions and keep Kevin Durant happy as he did in Game 7, they will give themselves a good chance to win this series. With Dallas having been very consistent so far in the postseason, it is more about what the Thunder are able to do to win then it is about Dallas. 

Key Matchup: James Harden vs. Jason Terry

It might not be the obvious choice, but I take it that we know what we will get from the stars in this series. Dirk, Westbrook and Durant will all be monsters. The 6^th man is what will give their teams a distinct advantage. Jason Terry has been firing of late and it is not hard to correlate that with how well Dallas has been playing, his scintillating 9/10 from 3 in game 4 (although all wide open, what was with that?) against the Lakers put the game to rest early. Harden has been flying under the radar in these Playoffs; he is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, he is also getting a block and a steal. In game 7 vs. Memphis, he put up a stellar performance, scoring 17 points off the bench and as a result the Thunder won it comfortably despite only 14 points from Westbrook.

When looking at how the two players faired against one another, it is fair to point out that the Thunder did not play the Mavs after trading away Jeff Green, a move that saw an increase in minutes and shots for Harden. James had a poor season series against the Mavs, scoring 9 points per game on only 37% shooting. Jason Terry also had an average showing against OKC, averaging 14 points on 41% shooting. Although they are ok numbers, it was a fair bit down from the 16 points and 45% shooting he averaged on the season. I don’t think anybody expects James Harden to quite outplay Jason Terry, but if Harden can play to a level similar to that of Terrys, it will go a long way in improving the Thunders chances. Conversely, if Jason Terry dominates this matchup and has a series that at all resembles what he did against the Lakers, they may well on their way back to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: Dallas in 7.

With home court advantage and the experience having been to the Finals before, I give the edge to Dallas. They had a large break between last series and now, which should really help guys like Peja, Marion, and especially Jason Kidd.

Eastern Conference: (1) Chicago Bulls vs. (2) Miami Heat

Season Series: Chicago 3-0

What To Watch For:

Defence. Defence. Defence. There will be a lot of it in this series. Chicago led the NBA this season in defensive efficiency, only allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami weren’t too bad themselves, fifth in the league allowing only 100.7 points per 100 possessions. (2, 3 and 4 were Boston, Orlando and Milwaukee respectively)… (Wait wait wait, not ready to close this sidenote yet, the Bucks?! Yep, the goddamn Bucks. They couldn’t hit any shots, but played great D). In the three meetings this season, the final scores were: 87-86, 93-89 and 99-96. Nobody ever reached the century mark; expect this trend to continue this series. The shooters hitting shots will be big in this series, as scoring will not comes easy. If guys like Kyle Korver, Keith Bogans, James Jones and Mario Chalmers can find their touch; they will be worth their weight in gold.

Key Matchup: Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh.

The other four starting five matchups in this series are predictable; the Power Forward matchup is one that could change the course of the series. Boozers’ struggles against length has been well documented for much of his career, he has a hard time getting off shots, finishing around the rim and defending players with great length. But, in the Eastern Conference Finals he will be required to win this matchup if the Bulls are to have any chance of moving on to the NBA Finals. He will need to bully Bosh with his size and strength much like what we have seen from Zach Randolph in these Playoffs, his strength and toughness is what separates him from the wiry Bosh.

While I never like to look at the season series because it isn’t too much of an indicator, it may provide some insight into how these two players faired against one another. During the three regular season meetings, Boozer averaged 13 points and 10 rebounds, shooting only 46% from the floor. Down from season averages of 17.5 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 51%. Bosh also experienced a dip in his averages against the Bulls this season; he averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds, shooting a dismal 34%. Which was a major decline from his season averages of 19 points, 8 rebounds, shooting 50%. This doesn’t provide too much insight other then both players struggled as expected with all the defence both teams play. However, if either Boozer or Bosh is able to dominate this matchup, it will be a pretty big indicator as to who has the better shot in this series.

Prediction: Miami in 6.

The Bulls defence will be good enough to win them one or two games on its own, the key is if there offence will be good enough to win one or two more? All things considered, I believe Miami looks too focused and locked in, they will most likely have the easier time scoring and that could be the difference in this series.

Five Myths About The Miami Heat

A lot has been said about this Miami Heat team, everybody likes to look for reasons as to why they will not succeed. Most have been rightly turned off by the infamous ‘Decision’ and the joke of an introduction that soon followed (see picture below). A few common misconceptions have consistently reared their heads this season; the following are four of the biggest:

Myth One: Depth is Important.

Team depth is something that can allow you to cruise through the vigour and grind of the regular season. It allowed the Spurs to rise to the top of the Western Conference standings, but come Playoff time – it is a star driven league. A common misconception is that depth wins titles but when the bright Playoff lights come on and the big boys come out to play, the supposed team ‘depth’ is riding the bench. While many believe that depth is a major aspect to a teams title chances, most people would also agree that star players see a major increase in minutes come Playoff time. When you think about it, those are two very different and conflicting ideologies. How can depth be so important to a teams title hopes, but it is conceded that come Playoff time, the stars will see an increase in minutes? An interesting stat to look at is the difference in minutes of the players on the 2010 NBA Championship Lakers when comparing the regular season to the Playoffs.

		Regular Season	Playoff
		Minutes	Minutes	Difference
Starters
Derek Fisher		27.2	32.8	5.6
Kobe Bryant		38.8	40.1	1.3
Ron Artest		33.8	36.5	2.7
Pau Gasol		37.0	39.7	2.7
Andrew Bynum		30.4	24.4	-6.0
STARTERS TOTAL:		167.2	173.5	6.3
Bench
Lamar Odom		31.5	29.0	-2.5
Josh Powell		9.2	3.1	-6.1
Shannon Brown		20.7	14.1	-6.6
Sasha Vujacic		8.6	7.6	-1.0
Jordan Farmar		18.0	13.1	-4.9
Luke Walton		9.4	6.0	-3.4
DJ Mbenga		7.2	4.0	-3.2
BENCH TOTAL:		104.6	76.9	-27.7

A then-injured Andrew Bynum is an exception to the example as he saw a decrease of six minutes during the Playoffs. Lamar Odom also skews the statistics, as he is a starting calibre player and is playing starters minutes. The best six players on the 2010 Championship Lakers team accounted for 203 of the available 240 minutes each game in the Playoffs. When looking at this current Miami Heat team, LeBron saw his minutes increase from 38.8 to 43.4. Wades’ minutes increased from 37.1 to 39.5, while Bosh also saw an increase in minutes from 36.3 to 39 when the Playoffs began. Assuming the best six players on the Heat team are LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers, the best six account for 198 of the available 240 minutes. The lack of depth on this Heat team may explain why they “only” won 58 games, but being extremely top heavy is the reason as to why they are yet to be challenged in the Playoffs.

Of course this formula is not applicable to all good Playoff teams – see Dallas Mavericks. The Heats best six players account for 82.5% of the available minutes in the Playoffs, and when three of those six best players are to the calibre of Wade, James and Bosh – who needs depth?

Myth Two: The Supporting Cast is Terrible!

Sure, a team consisting of Zydrunas Ilagauskas, James Jones, Eddie House, Joel Anthony, Juwon Howard, Mike Miller and a finished Mike Bibby who can’t guard your grandma is underwhelming. There is not too much to get excited over on this Heat team outside of the big three, but at the same time they have some of the most perfect role players for what they need. Joel Anthony is impossible to keep off the boards, he may not get every rebound but he will get his hand to every loose ball. His defensive strengths make him a great frontcourt partner to Chris Bosh. Offensively, he contributes almost nothing, but when you have three players on your team contributing a combined 68.2 points per game, it’s probably not going to hurt you too much.

Shooters are often the x-factor of a Playoff team; a lot comes down to if they hit their shots when it counts. Being a shooter on this Miami Heat team is a dream job for any role player. Not only do shooters get more open looks than on any other team, but Wade and James are able to deliver a pass under pressure or while being double-teamed right to the shooters chest. So far these Playoffs, the shooters have been white hot (excuse the pun). James Jones and Mario Chalmers are shooting a combined 38% from 3 in the Playoffs. Mike Miller is only playing 5mins per game and Mike Bibby has only made 8 of his 34 3pt attempts. Amongst those role players that are playing considerable minutes, most are giving the Heat exactly what they are asked to, with the exception being Mike Bibby.

Myth Three: Miami Can’t Win This Season.

The Heat are ready. They proved during the regular season that they are already a force to be reckoned with. Although they suffered a few embarrassing losses, they also had some very imposing wins. Amongst the worst of the losses are those to the Bucks, Cavs and Knicks (twice). On the contrast, they had some very memorable wins including a 30point demolition of the then-top-seeded Spurs and a thumping of the Lakers in LA on Christmas Day. There are always odd examples of really good teams losing to terrible competition during the regular season; this can be because of a variety of reasons. With a long Playoff push in the forefront of the organisations mind, lapses are inevitable against very underwhelming competition. Reducing the minutes of star players and saving them for the Playoffs is often more of a focus and priority then winning 65 games.

Further to this, Dwyane Wade knows what it takes to win an NBA Championship and LeBron has just addressed the demons of his past as the Heat coasted past the Celtics in 5 games. Regardless of if you think Chris Bosh is good enough to be the third best player on a Championship team, Wade and LeBron are almost good enough by themselves to beat the remaining teams in the Playoffs. Anybody that watches this team play can’t deny that Wade and LeBron look ready.

Myth Four: They Have No Closer. 

Earlier this season this had some legitimacy and there was the stat thrown around where the Heat had shot 1/10 in late game situations when the result was still in the balance. We often grant teams the ‘adjustment period’ when they are learning to play with each other, but amidst the overwhelming hope that this team would fail, we did not grant the Heat that luxury. It has been some time since that argument has been given. The Heat are extremely vulnerable to criticism no matter what happens in late game situations. LeBron was canned earlier this season for passing up on a potential game winning shot, against the Thunder, to Eddie House – which he hit. Fans still want to see LeBron or Wade go one on five even though there is evidence to show that Chris Paul is much more efficient in late game situations as it is better to have an amazing playmaking point guard rather than a Kobe-like superstar shooting a contested fade-away jumpshot over a double team.

Theoretically, closing games with two players such as LeBron and Wade should be quite easy, they are two players that can get to the rim or free throw line whenever they want. The Heat are also equipped with a great pick-and-pop player in Chris Bosh. When you factor in the dead-eye shooters on the perimeter, they sound almost impossible to guard. While this has not been much of an issue in the past couple of months, it is definitely something Miami were attacked over earlier this season. It is yet to cost them a Playoff game, and until it does, I won’t consider it a problem big enough to stop them winning it all.

Myth Five: The Money Spent On Bosh Could Have Been Better Spent.

This is one of the more ludicrous claims that have been said about this team. It is often argued that Bosh should not have been signed, and the heat should have instead used that money to sign 2-3 very good role players to surround Wade and LeBron. Outside of all the star players that were free agents last summer, the 2010 free agent class was terrible – and that’s a compliment. Chris Bosh earned $14.5m in his first year with the Heat, is there another way that money could have been distributed to other Free Agents? If Miami had not signed Bosh, their needs would have obviously been to shore up their frontcourt, and perhaps add more shooting or another wing player to play backup minutes behind Wade and LeBron and maybe even carry the offense for a couple of minutes.

What was the Heat supposed to do? Sign Marcus Camby ($4m), Wesley Matthews ($8m) and Fracisco Elson ($2m)? Or maybe Raymond Felton ($7m), Kyle Korver ($5m) and Nazr Mohammed ($2m)? None of those 3 player combinations are even close to the calibre of Bosh. Even if the Heat decided to go in a different direction in the future, Chris Bosh is a much bigger trade asset then any of the previously mentioned players. Although Bosh is not up to the standard of LeBron or Wade, he is definitely a better addition to the team then any other available free agent outside of the marquee players that were unachievable. The only improvement that could have been made would be to have offered that same money to someone like Amare Stoudemire, but it was definitely far from a certainty that he would have agreed to it. Another reason as to why Bosh was signed is that this Miami agreement was clearly in place between the three players and had been for a long time. Assuming it all came together that quickly in the free agency period would be naive, Miami bought a three pack – they could not be purchased separately.

Miami are still my pick to win the NBA Championship, in a star driven league they are the team of all teams. Their defence has been proven over the regular season and so far in the Playoffs. Wade and LeBron in their prime somehow have enough energy to play as hard as they do on both ends of the floor. Their role players are providing exactly what they need to, they have a nice mix of veteran leadership and proven winners. And, with the remaining teams being the Thunder, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hawks – is anyone actually good enough to stop them?