Understanding the Spurs - What Went Wrong?

The San Antonio Spurs rolled through the regular season, won more games than any other Western Conference team. The continued success of the Spurs has meant counting them out is something that sportswriters and experts alike often condemn. This however, is not a regular San Antonio team. Gone are the days where you throw the ball to Tim Duncan and watch him dominate on the block. Gone are the days Tim has a frontcourt mate (whether it be Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, David Robinson, or Robert Horry) to help him lockup the paint defensively. Gone are the days where the 3point shot was a compliment to a dominant inside game for the Spurs. And, gone are the days where lockdown defence was the staple of the organisation. While regular season success has not translated to the post season and many people have been left stunned, it is easy to understand why this team was never geared for a deep playoff run. Anybody that watched the Spurs play this season saw a distinct change in playing style from what we have become accustomed to. Change that may have helped them coast through the regular season but would inevitably harm them in the postseason. After much analysis and time spent thinking about what changed for the Spurs that has seen them recently fade in the postseason, three distinct points of difference emerged.

Heavy Reliance on the 3point Shot.

Regular season success for the Spurs strongly hindered on if the 3point shot was falling for them. While being a decent 3point shooting team is an important aspect for any Playoff team, there is a difference between relying on it and using it to compliment the offense. During the regular season the Spurs shot 42.2% from 3 in wins and only 32.9% in losses, this may be an obvious statistic to some as you assume if you shoot well you will win. But, when you crunch the numbers further, the Spurs heavy reliance on the 3 is revealed. That differential of 9.3% between wins and losses is the second highest amongst Playoff teams, trailing only the Knicks (9.8% differential). To provide a benchmark, the average differential between 3point percentages in wins when compared to losses amongst Playoff teams is 6.5%. Making 3s is a great compliment to any good offensive team but should not be something that is relied upon night and night out to give your team a chance to win against good teams as it is with this Spurs team. All too often we have seen jump-shooting teams experience regular season success only to falter in the Playoffs, this list includes teams such as Phoenix, Orlando and Dallas.

Lack of Size and Interior Presence.

Being able to lockdown the paint in the Playoffs and challenge shots at the rim is something very important to Playoff teams. Tim is no longer someone that can be paired with any PF or C and can be expected to carry them. Players such as Rasho, Nazr and Fab no longer suffice next to a 35-year old Tim Duncan. Tim needs a backcourt partner that can assist in shouldering the defensive load and provide some form of interior scoring on the offensive end. The Spurs have been exposed in the first round going up against the duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Despite all the media attention and hype given to Zach Randolph, often ZBo hasn’t been the problem - Marc has simply outplayed Tim. We have seen too many instances where Tim looks to secure a defensive rebound, only to have it ripped away by a bigger, stronger and younger, Marc. Tiago Splitter may become the frontcourt mate so desperately needed, but it is help that has come too late. Tim is currently the Spurs only form of rim defence; no other player will make you think twice about challenging them. Matt Bonner (too slow) and DeJuan Blair (too small) can be extreme defensive liabilities at times depending on the matchup, while Antonio McDyess should be getting spot minutes and not depended upon to guard star players such as Dirk, ZBo and Pau Gasol for 30 minutes.

Absence of Length and Size on the Perimeter.

Granted depth is less of a factor in the Playoffs when the best five to six players on the team will combine for over 80% of the available minutes, the players that surround your core guys should at least be capable defensively. A good example of this is the Chicago Bulls, while their roster on paper is not all too impressive, they surrounded their core players with length, defence and toughness with players such as Ronnie Brewer, CJ Watson, Keith Bogans and Luol Deng. While I am not suggesting that another Keith Bogans appearance is the solution, the Bulls were able to incorporate the players listed above along with their core players to achieve the best defence and overall record in the NBA. Before you shout at your screens that Playoff success is the topic of conversation and the Bulls are yet to prove anything in the postseason. The Spurs relying on 3point shooting is a trait by which success in the Playoffs cannot be relied upon, while lockdown defence is usually a key focus of any successful Playoff team. Manu Ginobili is currently the Spurs best answer defensively for players such as Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant, and while he generally does a great job, it would be nice for the Spurs to not completely rely on Manu offensively, as well as defensively to guard elite perimeter players.

An interesting side note to this is that the Spurs ranked 11^th in Defensive Efficiency this season while Chicago ranked 1^st. For those that don’t know, Defensive Efficiency is the amount of points a team allowed per 100 possessions, it is better to look at this then points allowed as it factors in pace. (I recently commented on an article on the Bleacher Report and cited Defensive Efficiency, when the author replied it was obvious he had no idea what it actually was and thus I felt the need to explain… okay now I’m rambling.)

There are many obvious problems with the Spurs that prevent them from going far in the Playoffs. The Spurs have run into a team that not only exploit all of their weaknesses, but punish them for it. Even if changes are made to rectify the problems mentioned, it might be too late for the Spurs. Tim Duncan turned 35 a couple of days ago, while Manu and Tony will turn 34 and 29 respectively before next season. Sure, the Spurs will bounce back and win another 50 games next season. But, being a small market team with no room to move financially, very little trade assets and an aging core does not bode well for the four time champs. It may finally be time to count them out. 

Orlando - Where Lightning Struck Twice, Then Walked Out The Door.

Rewind back to 1992, the Magic strikes it lucky in a lottery where the most dominant player of the following 10-15 years enters the draft. Shaquille O’Neal enters the NBA after averaging 24.1 points, 14 rebounds and 5.2 blocks per game in his junior season at LSU. Shaq was the unanimous numbers 1 pick and instantly turned around a struggling Orlando franchise. Orlando nearly doubled their wins (from 21-61 to 41-41) in Shaqs rookie season, in his sophomore season they made it to the NBA Finals where they were swept by a Hakeem-led Houston Rockets. With growing pressure on then-coach Brian Hill and hesitance to give Shaq $100m (both from the public and internally), Shaq signed a 7-year, $121m deal with the Lakers, teamed with Kobe, went on the be the most dominant player in the league in the next 10 years and won three championships with the Lakers. The Magic landed a once in every 50 years player and lost him after only three seasons, for nothing. Could the Magic ever forgive themselves for this? Would they ever strike it that lucky again?

Enter Dwight Howard.

Eight years later and the Magic hadn’t made it out of the first round since losing Shaq. Ironically, after another 21-61 season which saw them land Shaq 12 years earlier, the Magic once again were blessed with the top pick of the 2004 NBA draft. The choice was either an established college basketball star from UCONN in Emeka Okafor, or a riskier Dwight Howard who was entering the draft straight out of high school. The Magic decided to go with the high risk – potentially very high reward product in Dwight. The Magic had done it again, scoring a player who would become the most dominant Centre in the NBA. Not many franchises have the luxury of drafting a player the calibre of Shaq or Dwight, let alone both of them in just more then a ten-year span. Lightening had struck twice in Orlando, but after a failed trip to the NBA Finals and multiple questionable trades and free agent signings, it appears the Magic may suffer a similar fate once again.

While Orlando have shown no hesitance to spend in an effort to surround Dwight with a championship calibre team (in what I like to call the 'Cav-theory' of spending), they have made very little moves that made sense. At the time each move was made, we thought they were nonsensical and a bit extreme. Looking back now, it is amazing how many disastrously expensive moves the Magic organisation have made since signing Dwight. The only way to truly get an overview of the situation is to provide a timeline of the all the terrible moves the Magic have made since drafting Dwight:

11^th July 2007: Orlando Sign Rashard Lewis to a 6-year, $118m deal.

As much of a great fit Rashard was next to Dwight, which I admit he was, signing a then-28 year old Lewis to a max contract was ludicrous. This deal would limit what Orlando were able to do financially throughout the entire length of that contract. Nobody would trade for this contract, they were stuck with a decent stretch 4 on $20m annually. 

25^th June 2009: Orlando Acquire Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson.

While Orlando only gave up one true asset in this trade, Courtney Lee, they acquired a player who was not built for the playoffs. Vinsanity is extremely talented and great to watch, but lacked the killer instinct, self-drive and determination which would have made him into an asset for a championship team. Vince is built for the highlight reel, not the NBA Playoffs. 

Interesting side note: Ryan Anderson may have been a throw-in in this deal, but ended up almost providing the same output, shooting and matchup problems as Rashard did at PF. Only, at a cost of $17m less per season.

9^th July 2010: Orlando trade Hedo Turkoglu to the Raptors.

While this deal wasn’t all too bad because keeping Hedo would have meant overpaying for him, Hedo was the MVP of the team in their 2009 NBA Finals run. His height, ball handling and shooting put in a pick and roll with Dwight, having shooters on the perimeter was a matchup nightmare. Why letting Turk walk was not a great decision is further explained in a future terrible move.

10^th July 2010: Brandon Bass signs $18m deal with the Magic.

While this deal, 4 years $18m, was a decent deal for Bass, it is money they could have given to Hedo Turkoglu. They were unwilling to overpay their MVP from last season, but were happy to give that money to Bass. Their big man rotation at the time of Howard, Anderson, Gortat, Shard and Foyle was not in need of bolstering with Bass. Instead they could have signed a veteran (such a Kurt Thomas or Juwon Howard) that could have been paid the minimum and given Dwight some valuable leadership along the way. Bass played in only 50 games his first season with Orlando, averaging 13mins. He is only now starting to 'blossom' because of more bad trades made by the Magic.

8^th July 2010: Magic sign Chris Duhon to 4year $15m deal.

Not going to break this one down too much. It’s not a great deal, but not too much for Duhon. It’s just more money they could have given to Hedo. Duhon sat on the end of the bench behind Nelson, Redick, Vince, Pietrus and Jason Williams. Unnecessary.


20^th December 2010: Orlando trade Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas and Earl Clark.

In two separate deals late last year, the Magic put the final nail in their own coffin. Trading Vince Carter, Pietrus and Gortat to Phoenix for JRich, Turkoglu back and Earl Clark was the less insane of the two moves. After deciding not to overpay Turkoglu two years previously and spend the money on Duhon and Bass to sit on the end of their bench, the Magic decide to trade a failed Vince Carter, along with two great Playoff assets in Pietrus and Gortat. Pietrus is a very good perimeter defender and 3point shooter, while Gortat is one of the best backup centers in the NBA. Defending the paint and guarding great wing players such as LeBron, Wade, Pierce and Ray Allen in the East are two very important aspects in the Playoffs. If they lost all of those assets, they must have acquired something pretty good, right? Nope, they got back Hedo Turkoglu on the amount of money they were unwilling to pay him two years previously and Jason Richardson who is a solid player, but not worth all of the assets Orlando gave up. Well done.

Further to this, they found a team willing to take on the second worst contract in the NBA, the catch was the deal was to trade for the worst contract in the NBA. Rashard Lewis was traded one-for-one to the Wizards for Rashard Lewis. Arenas at the time was averaging 17 points and 5 assists after missing 199 of his last 246 games due to a recurring knee injury and for bringing a gun into the locker room. While this deal was obviously a risk by the Magic that didn’t pay off, and nobody could have predicted how bad Arenas has been since the trade (8 points per game on 34% shooting in 22 minutes per game). The problem I have with this trade is that it would have available right up until the trade deadline, the Wizards were never saying no to this deal. Why not make the Phoenix trade, which was less risky, and see how the team and Rashard reacted. If the team needed another shakeup, revisit the Arenas possibility in February just before the deadline.  

In the meantime, a lot of their players are now considered untradeable due to the size and length of their contracts, they have very few assets of value and are locked in financially for the next two seasons. Dwight Howard can become a free agent after next season if he declines the final year ($19.3m) of his contract, which is very likely. The warning signs are sounding loudly, the days of Dwight in Orlando are truly numbered, and they are unable to make any last saving changes in an attempt to change his mind. As an NBA fan, it is frustrating to see Dwight waste his career in Orlando as he caries his team through the playoffs each season with Jameer Nelson making cameo appearances along the way. The prospect of him teaming with another star and competing in the Conference Finals vs. the Heat, Celtics or Bulls is mouth-watering.

In order to make a trade for Dwight, it is assumed you would need a trade asset large enough to entice the Magic, another star or two to team with Dwight, perhaps a decent first-round draft pick, and to be located in a city Dwight would be willing to play. Lucky for Dwight, there are a couple of potential suitors that meet this stringent criteria. The two obvious destinations frequently mentioned are the LA Lakers and New Jersey Nets (soon to be relocated to Brooklyn).

The Lakers would trade Andrew Bynum and probably a first round pick or two, the draft picks would be useless as the Lakers most likely won’t have a first round pick outside of the 23-30 range in the next 3-4 years. The Lakers are a destination in which Dwight would be willing to move to, whilst the Lakers get a dominant young big man. A team of Kobe, Pau, Dwight and Odom is a great prospect for any NBA fan. The New Jersey Nets present another interesting trade scenario, they have a solid young trade asset in Brook Lopez, would be able to provide a lottery pick, and is another destination in which Dwight would be open to playing in. He would be teamed with Deron Williams in an exciting time for the franchise as they move to a much larger market in Brooklyn. While these are the two obvious scenarios that have been thrown around repeatedly, there is another team waiting in the shadows that could emerge as a potential suitor for Dwight.

Another team not mentioned in the Dwight-sweapstakes is the Chicago Bulls, the Bulls are a young team on the rise, they finished with the best record in the NBA this season and most likely own the league MVP in Derrick Rose. Coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive mastermind who with Dwight Howard could take his already league-leading defence to scary new heights. Dwight would also be able to provide a boost offensively. There is no question Dwight is a great fit in Chicago, the system suits him and he gets to play with arguably the leagues best point guard and soon to be MVP in Rose. Fortunately, they also have a great asset that could be used in acquiring Dwight – Joakim Noah. Noah is a terrific young centre who can guard both the pick and roll and one-on-one in the post very effectively. While limited offensively, Noah could be a good enough piece for the Magic to consider trading Dwight if he demands out. The only setback in this trade is Dwight and his apparent need to be the ‘alpha dog’ on the team, which could be a question in Chicago. But, if you want to win, you will need to coexist with another star or two.

Unfortunately for Orlando fans, yet fortunately for NBA fans, I don’t think there is any way Orlando can find a way to keep Dwight, his supporting cast is terrible and he is wasting his career on that team. Whilst the Lakers and Nets are the most popular picks for where Dwight will land, I’m hoping the Chicago scenario manages to play out. Don’t lie, Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard taking on Miami, Boston, or an up and coming New York team is something you would LOVE to see!